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The initial estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -4.8%. The official number was boosted by government spending, as well as supposed income growth and personal savings. BEA has consistently revised its methods to boost first-quarter GDP. U.S. first-quarter GDP plunged profoundly negative, but real GDP would have been even worse. According to the Bureau…
Chrissy Teigen recently went on Twitter looking for lettuce. She ended up trading her banana bread for lettuce from a YouTube star. This small act could lead others to employ the barter system in this downtrodden economy. Chrissy Teigen is not known for her financial advice, but in this case, she could lead millions of…
There’s little doubt that a recession is inevitable in the wake of coronavirus. More people are Googling “recession” and “unemployment” than during the financial crisis. But maybe they should start Googling “depression.” Because these leading analysts say we’re headed for another Great Depression. The U.S. economy will probably slip into a recession this quarter and…
The struggle of 30.2 million small businesses in the U.S. increases the probability of a recession in the U.S. With a cash buffer of 27 days on average, millions of businesses are at risk of temporarily closing down. The stock market is showing no signs of recovery despite aggressive fiscal policies. The U.S. stock market…
Coronavirus has created the economic conditions that will pop the corporate debt bubble after a decade of inflating. The impact will be massive because a host of businesses that have been relying on refinancing cheap loans will struggle to stay afloat. The amount of low-quality corporate debt that’s been issued is unprecedented and will have…
Non-financial corporate debt as a share of GDP has surged to 46.4%, exceeding that of the last two major recessions in 2001 and 2009. Corporate borrowers were already flashing warning signs long before the coronavirus pandemic, but the novel disease could disrupt revenues and make it harder for companies to service their debt. Credit downgrades…
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen below the yield on the 3-month T-bill, stoking fresh recession talk. Long-duration bond yields are plunging on growing haven demand as coronavirus infects over 73,000 people. Researchers at MIT have used a scientific model to predict the likelihood of recession. The results don’t look good.…
Ford has been struggling ever since Alan Mulally left the company and there are reasons to believe the auto giant could fail to survive the next recession. The company’s biggest profit-generator, the F-150, will be negatively affected by rising oil prices. Ford’s attempts to diversify have been failing as evident from the sales trend in…
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